Thoughts on Deceptive Alignment on the Modern Battlefield

PSA 015

There are 2 emerging realities on the modern battlefield that are becoming increasingly visible.

1. Proliferation of sensors are creating an environment where everything is detectable.

2. Whereas the focus of targeting before was detecting targets based on signatures that can be camouflaged, it will now shift naturally to detecting deviations from pattern of behavior, and that determination will be brought to commanders algorithmically, by an analysis of data from staff and AI.

Together, these 2 tech-driven points are driving change at the tactical level. Traditional tactics for hiding or masking presence are outdated as the ability to detect “anomalies” becomes more sophisticated. On the chessboard where all the pieces are visible, it’s not so much about finding the pieces as it is figuring out what they're doing.

The impacts of this are pronounced- the battlefield freezes;

• At the tactical level, this means you can’t even take a piss without eating a rocket.

• At the operational level, this means maneuver degenerates into fires/attrition warfare, and the ability to mass or transition is out the window.

• At the strategic level, this means power projection can be disrupted because you can see it coming from a mile away. Maybe you can’t even get your guys to the battlefield.

And it’s not just hardware that is driving these advancements in detection, it’s software as well; our ability to analyze the virtual. Basically, creating data from data as analysis. And herein lies a fundamental weakness- each time you analyze an analysis 1 step further, you are assuming that things will unfold based on a prediction, regardless of how reasonable that prediction is. Perhaps the prediction is such a given that it isn’t even recognized as a prediction. Who would ever question that the sky is blue?

The frozen battlefield creates a new place to hide, and thus to maneuver- in purpose. Deceptive Alignment is when the behavioral patterns of your target seem in line with how you expect them to act, but the target’s hidden intentions allow it to act otherwise from its expected behavior at a moment of its choosing. Trojans and zebras hide like this, adversaries use this to attack.

What are some ways to maneuver inside intention? The most fundamental one is inside the spectrum of conflict. We saw Russia employ this flawlessly in its 2015 invasion of Crimea that seemed to hover between competition and crisis, until we all realized it was too late and we were already in conflict. China’s land reclamation campaign in the South China Sea has set it up for the influence and potential it currently wields against the Philippines. Our understanding of the way things should be is so narrowed that we never saw these coming.

So what’s the difference between this and what we already understand to be deception? The difference is this phenomena that takes advantage of our technological approach to warfare comes from the technological environment itself. This is a crucial distinction because it acknowledges that actions at the forward line of troops (FLOT) are occurring within the runners of the tech, divorced from the conflict at hand. Tech is not anchored to politics or an idea of justice or a spectrum of conflict, so all of these become places to hide. This is why it should be no surprise how increasingly easy it is to swap terminology created for generative AI models to warfare.

The evolution from physical camouflage to behavioral deception signifies a demand for a profound shift in military strategy. As detection capabilities grow, the art of war pivots from physical invisibility to the manipulation of perceived intentions. This new paradigm requires not only technological adaptation but also a deep understanding of psychology and strategic ambiguity- that is only possible using a whole of government approach, authorities granted to military leaders beyond which we consider now, and a true emphasis on the human aspect of war amidst this. Maneuver within intention becomes the chess game where the pieces are all visible, but their true purpose remains cloaked until the decisive moment. The strategic landscape thus transforms, where the ability to deceive through one's apparent alignment with expected behaviors from tactical to strategic, policy to commerce, will determine the outcome of conflicts.

Yo joe!